{"id":58842,"date":"2018-02-11T17:56:13","date_gmt":"2018-02-11T09:56:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/uxren.cn\/?p=58842"},"modified":"2019-04-09T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2019-04-09T03:11:23","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%85%8b%e6%9c%8dab%e6%b5%8b%e8%af%95%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e8%b5%a2%e8%80%85%e8%af%85%e5%92%92%e3%80%90uxren%e8%af%91205%e3%80%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?p=58842","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u514b\u670dAB\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u7684\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492\u3010UXRen\u8bd1#205\u3011"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58864\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-00.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"672\" height=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aMilan Shen(Statistician, Data Scientist@Airbnb) | \u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aIvan \u5ba1\u6821\uff1adodo<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u524d\u8a00<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u9009\u62e9A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u8fdb\u884c\u53d1\u5e03\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u505a\u5f88\u591a\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u6548\u679c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u4f55\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6548\u679c\u5462\uff1f\u76f4\u63a5\u628a\u6240\u6709\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u52a0\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0cAirbnb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6Milan Shen\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u88ab\u9009\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\u76f4\u63a5\u52a0\u548c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee( \u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492)\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u4fee\u6b63\u504f\u5dee\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u7efc\u5408\u6548\u679c\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002 (\u6ce8\uff1a\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4e2d\uff0cA\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u591a\u524d\u624d\u8fdb\u5165\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u6211(Milan Shen)\u5f88\u5f00\u5fc3\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u5e94\u7528\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u5047\u8bbe\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u201d\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u6027\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u8ba4\u77e5\u6307\u5f15\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5145\u65a5\u7740\u5927\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5927\u8303\u56f4A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u65e0\u7591\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u65e7\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u5927\u578b\u7684A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5e73\u53f0\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u65e0\u6cd5\u81ea\u6d3d\u3002\u4e3e\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1aAirbnb\u66fe\u7ecf\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u8fde\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u591a\u6b21A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e866\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5411\u5168\u90e8\u7684\u7528\u6237(\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u7528\u4e8eHoldout\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u7528\u6237\u9664\u5916)\u53d1\u5e03\u8fd96\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6210\u529f\u523a\u6fc0\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6548\u679c\u52a0\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\u52a0\u548c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0eHoldout\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ec4\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58857\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-01.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1252\" height=\"842\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-01.png 1252w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-01-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-01-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-01-1024x689.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1252px) 100vw, 1252px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97(bottoms-up calculation,\u56fe\u5de6)\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u662f\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6d4b\u9a8c\u6307\u6807\u7684\u589e\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u56fe\u53f3\u5219\u662f\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6848\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u6307\u6807\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u524d\u8005\u7684\u6c42\u548c\u4e0e\u548c\u540e\u8005\u5747\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea7\u54c1\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6548\u679c\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\u4e0a\u524d\u8005\u7684\u603b\u548c\u660e\u663e\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u540e\u8005\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u89e3\u91ca\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5dee\u5f02\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u4f60\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u201c\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u589e\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u6c42\u548c\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u6709\u7406\u7531\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>a)\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a5\u4e00\u4e2a\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u7684;<\/li>\n<li>b)\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6bcf\u6b21\u6539\u53d8\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u63d0\u5347\u90fd\u662f\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7528\u52a0\u6cd5\u6216\u8005\u4e58\u6cd5\u90fd\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u5176\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94(\u5373\u5f53x\u5f88\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684log(1+x)~x )\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4f46\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6362\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u60f3\u5230\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u5177\u6709\u8bf8\u591a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u4e0d\u540c<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u6240\u4ee5\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff1b\u56e0\u6b647.2% \u548c 4%\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u5dee\u5f02\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u53d7\u5230\u6de1\u65fa\u5b63\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nAirbnb\u6240\u5728\u7684\u65c5\u6e38\u884c\u4e1a\u662f\u907f\u4e0d\u5f00\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f71\u54cd\u6d4b\u8bd5\u591a\u6b21\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u77ed\u671f\u6548\u5e94VS.\u957f\u671f\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5355\u72ec\u7684A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u53ea\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6b63\u5411\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u77ed\u671f\u6548\u5e94\u76f4\u63a5\u52a0\u548c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5728\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4fb5\u8680<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u5373\u4f7f\u6bcf\u573a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7ec4\u522b\u95f4\u7528\u6237\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6548\u679c\u3002Airbnb\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u79f0\u4e3a\u4fb5\u8680(cannibalization)\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fc7\u591a\u63d0\u53ca\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u70b9\u5c55\u5f00\u6765\u8bb2\u90fd\u591f\u4e00\u7bc7\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5931\u8bef\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u539f\u8c05\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e0c\u671b\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u52a0\u666e\u904d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5e73\u53f0\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u80fd\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u5b83\uff1a\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\uff08\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492(selection bias, aka. Winner\u2019s Curse)\uff09<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u53d7\u5230\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492\u7684\u56f0\u6270\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492\u539f\u610f\u4e3a\u5728\u7ade\u4ef7\u62cd\u5356\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u867d\u7136\u6700\u7ec8\u8d2d\u5f97\u7ade\u62cd\u54c1\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c42\u5c42\u52a0\u7801\u800c\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u8d85\u51fa\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u6765\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u663e\u8457\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u6bd4\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u8981\u9ad8\u7684\u73b0\u8c61(\u6311\u9009\u51fa\u4e86\u4f18\u80dc\u8005\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30)\u3002\u6765\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c10\u6b21A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u90fd\u662f1%\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u6837\u672c\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6548\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u884c\u6570\u636e\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u884c\u6570\u636e\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u6682\u65f6\u5047\u88c5\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5b83\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58858\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-02.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1070\" height=\"194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-02.png 1070w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-02-300x54.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-02-768x139.png 768w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-02-1024x186.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1070px) 100vw, 1070px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7t\u68c0\u9a8c\u6765\u68c0\u6d4b\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u91c7\u7528\u6309\u7167\u663e\u8457\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u03b1 = 0.05\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2dt\u503c\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u9700\u8981\u5927\u4e8e1.96\u624d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u663e\u8457\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u67093\u6b21\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u7684\u7ea2\u6846\u6807\u6ce8\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58859\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1067\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-03.png 1067w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-03-300x48.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-03-768x122.png 768w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-03-1024x162.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1067px) 100vw, 1067px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u4e09\u6b21\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u52a0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\uff1a2.7% + 2.6% + 3.3% = 8.6%\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u77e5\u9053\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u5176\u5b9e\u53ea\u67091% + 1% + 4% = 6%\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u6784\u6210\u4e862.6%\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u597d\u5427\u2026\u6211\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u600e\u6837\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5c55\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u501f\u52a9\u4e00\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6765\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u51fa\u6765\uff1a\u5047\u5982X1, \u2026, Xn \u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u4e14 X\u1d62\u7684\u5747\u503c\u4e3aa\u1d62 \u3001\u65b9\u5dee\u4e3a\u03c3\u1d62\u00b2\u3002\u90a3\u4e48a\u1d62 \u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u65e0\u504f\u5dee\u7684X\u1d62 \u6765\u4f30\u6d4ba\u1d62\u7684\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u56de\u5230\u65e5\u5e38\u7684A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u72ec\u7acb\u6837\u672ct\u68c0\u9a8c\u6765\u68c0\u6d4b\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9009\u62e9\u90a3\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u201c\u663e\u8457\u201d\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9608\u9650\u503c\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u65b9\u6848\u53bb\u53d1\u5e03\u3002\u5047\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5i\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u662f\u03b1\u1d62 \u3002\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6682\u65f6\u5047\u8bbe\u03c3\u1d62\u00b2 \u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u65b9\u6848\u5c31\u7b26\u5408\u516c\u5f0f\uff1aX\u1d62 \/\u03c3\u1d62&gt; b\u1d62, b\u1d62 \u663e\u8457\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u03b1\u1d62\u53c2\u8003\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u9608\u9650\u503c\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e3a0.05\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u5165\u9009\u65b9\u6848\u7528\u96c6\u5408\u8868\u793a\u4e3a A= {i|X\u1d62 \/\u03c3\u1d62 &gt; b\u1d62}\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u6c42\u548c\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\uff1aT_A = \u2211{i \u2208 A} a\u1d62\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u6c42\u548c\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\uff1aS_A= \u2211{i \u2208 A} X\u1d62 .\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aA\u662f\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u6570\u5217\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5T_A\u4e5f\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u57fa\u672c\u4e0aES_A \u2260 ET_A\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u9884\u671f\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u503c\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u5c31\u662f\uff1aE[T_A] = E[\u2211{i \u2208 A} a\u1d62].<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u8bc1\u660eES_A \u2265 ET_A\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58860\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1248\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-04.png 1248w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-04-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-04-768x256.png 768w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-04-1024x341.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1248px) 100vw, 1248px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5728\u5747\u503c\u4e3a0\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u4f4e\u622a\u65ad\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5747\u503c\u603b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u503c\uff0c\u5219\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5747\u503c\u7684\u6240\u6709\u52a0\u548c\u9879\u4e5f\u662f\u6b63\u503c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u201c\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u4e5f\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u503c\u3002\u770b\u770b\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c42\u548c\u516c\u5f0f\u6784\u753b\u6210\u51fa\u6765\u5c31\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c a\u1d62\u5728\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u51fd\u6570(\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u522b\u5fd8\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u03c3\u1d62 =1,b\u1d62\u662ft\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e2d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u9608\u9650\u503c\uff0c\u53731.96 )\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58861\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-05.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-05.png 864w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-05-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-05-768x384.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u80fd\u6784\u753b\u4e00\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u6548\u679c\u548cp\u503c\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u504f\u5dee\u91cf\u4e5f\u968f\u7740\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7ebf\u6027\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58862\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-06.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-06.png 864w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-06-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-06-768x384.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6e05\u695a\u4e86\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u52a0\u548c\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee(E[S_A -T_A])\u8fdb\u884c\u91cf\u5316.<\/p>\n<p>\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u201c\u9009\u62e9\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u6b21\u6311\u9009A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u7684\u4f18\u80dc\u65b9\u6848\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u6548\u679c\u6c42\u548c\u7528\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u6574\u4f53\u6548\u679c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u7136\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u6b21\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u62df\u6bd4\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fd9\u51e0\u5343\u5b57\u4f1a\u66f4\u5177\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf7\u770b\u770b\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u56fe\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u62df\u6765\u5c55\u793a\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u6bd4\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c(X\u8f74)\u663e\u8457\u8981\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86n=30\u6b21A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u4f18\u52bf\u65b9\u6848\u5bf9\u76ee\u6807\u6570\u636e\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u6548\u679c\u3002\u5bf9\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5i\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u622a\u5c3e\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u53d6\u6837\u4e86 Z\u1d62 ~ N(0.2, 0.7\u00b2)\u65f6\u7684 a\u1d62 ~ Z\u1d62|(-1.5 &lt; Z\u1d62 &lt; 2)\uff0c\u548c\u5f62\u72b6\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a3\u3001\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a1\u7684\u9006\u4f3d\u9a6c\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u53d6\u6837\u4e86\u03c3\u1d62\u00b2 \u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u6b63\u5411\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c(\u5728\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u6570\u636e\u6307\u6807\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u6709\u7406\u6709\u636e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe)\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de6\u504f\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u57281000\u6b21\u6570\u636e\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u6b21\u6a21\u62df\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u768445\u5ea6\u5bf9\u89d2\u7ebf\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58863\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-07.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-07.png 864w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-07-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-07-768x384.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u771f\u7684\u2026\u662f\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5417\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u542c\u8bf4\u8fc7\u201c\u591a\u91cd\u68c0\u9a8c\u201d\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4f60\u800c\u8a00\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f88\u719f\u6089\u4e86\u3002\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u591a\u91cd\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5de7\u5999\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u62d2\u771f\u9519\u8bef\u6216\u591a\u91cd\u6bd4\u8f83\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002Bonferroni\u6821\u6b63\u3001Benjamini-Hochberg\u7684FDR\u6821\u6b63\u6cd5\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6c34\u5e73\u503c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u83b7\u5f97\u4e00\u4e9b\u663e\u8457\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u566a\u97f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u53ef\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u660e\u6670\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b(\u4f8b\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u6709\u7684A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u662f\u51c6\u786e\u7684)\uff0c\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u52a0\u548c\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u6548\u679c\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u6548\u679c\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u9009\u62e9(\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u663e\u8457)\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4f18\u9009\u65b9\u6848\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5176A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6837\u672c\u7684\u5747\u503c\u89c6\u4f5c\u603b\u4f53\u6837\u672c\u5747\u503c\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u5728\u53d1\u73b0\u67d0\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u5176\u4fdd\u6301\u5f02\u5e38\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u5df2\u7ecf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u6548\u679c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8d85\u8fc7\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u9650\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u503c\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65e0\u7591\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5411\u4e0a\u504f\u8bef\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e76\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u7684A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e5f\u5728\u4e3a\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u6dfb\u7816\u52a0\u74e6\uff0c\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u6709\u4e9b\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4f30\u6d4bET_A\u7684\u503c\u5c24\u5176\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u90a3\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u4fee\u6b63T_A|A;\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u6240\u6709\u663e\u8457\u548c\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5747\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u66f4\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u5e94\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u4e3e\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u60c5\u666f1\uff1a\u67d0\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c1\u6b21A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6548\u679cX\u2081= 1\u4e14p\u503c\u5c0f\u4e8e0.001\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u60c5\u666f2\uff1a\u67d0\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c1000\u6b21A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5176\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6548\u679cX\u2081= 1\u4e14p\u503c\u5c0f\u4e8e0.001\uff1b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u76f4\u89c2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u91c7\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u603b\u4f53\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u56e0\u4e3a\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u65e0\u7591\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u9ad8\u4f30\u60c5\u666f2\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f7f\u7528ET_A \u6765\u4fee\u6b63\u6700\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u8003\u8651\u8fdb\u53bb\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u53ea\u6709\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u663e\u8457\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4fee\u6b63\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u60c5\u666f1\u548c2\u800c\u8a00\u5219\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u8ba1\u5212\u597d\u9700\u8981\u53c2\u4e0e\u52a0\u548c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u91cfA\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u4e86\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u504f\u5dee\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u8fd8\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4f17\u591aA\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u6311\u9009\u4e86\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u5927\u578b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5e73\u53f0\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u7ecf\u5e38\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">\u6240\u4ee5\u2026\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5185\u5bb9\u5305\u62ec\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5ba3\u5e03A\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6700\u540e\u4ea7\u751f\u600e\u6837\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f60\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u52aa\u529b\u907f\u514d\u504f\u5dee\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5f97\u5230\u8d62\u8005\u8bc5\u5492\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u771f\u5b9e\u53d8\u91cf a\u1d62 \u548c \u03c3\u1d62\u00b2 \u90fd\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u504f\u5deeE[S_A -T_A]\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58871\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-01.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-01.png 740w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-01-300x61.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230a\u1d62 \u548c \u03c3\u1d62\u00b2 \u90fd\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u6d4b\u91cf\u503cX\u1d62 \u548c W \u1d62(X\u1d62\u00a0 \u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee)\u6765\u4ee3\u66ff\u5b83\u4eec\u6765\u5f97\u5230\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4f30\u6d4b\u503c\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-58872\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-02.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"458\" height=\"140\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-02.png 458w, https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/uxrenyi-205-bu-02-300x92.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 458px) 100vw, 458px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u51cf\u6389\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u771f\u5b9e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u3002Airbnb\u7684ERF\u5e73\u53f0(Experimentations Reporting Framework)\u65b0\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u52a8\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd9\u4e2a\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u901a\u8fc7ERF\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u9009\u62e9\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6307\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6307\u6807\u548c\u5206\u6790\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u4e3b\u62bd\u6837\u6cd5\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6548\u679c\u4e3a5.3%\u800c\u4e0d\u662f7.2%\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6548\u679c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53bb\u9664\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e0e\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u591a\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684Bayesian\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6bd4\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u5e94\u7528\u5230ERF\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8981\u5c24\u5176\u8c28\u614e\u5e76\u4e14\u505a\u597d\u56e2\u961f\u6c9f\u901a\u3002<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u5c31\u50cf\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u6b63\u5411\u7684\u6240\u4ee5\u53bb\u9664\u504f\u5dee\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u6548\u679c\u503c\u4f1a\u6bd4\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u503c\u8981\u5c0f\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e14\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5f88\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u4f30\u7b97\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5f53\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u6709\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4ed8\u51fa\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u5230\u5ba2\u89c2\u770b\u5f85\u5e76\u63a5\u53d7\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u786e\u5b9a\u597d\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u53d1\u5e03\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u5e94\u7528\u504f\u5dee\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u636e\u989d\u5916\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6ce8\u91cd\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u7528\u504f\u5dee\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u9608\u9650\u503c\u4e3a b\u1d62 \u3002\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9608\u9650\u503c\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u53d1\u5e03\u6761\u4ef6\u5c31\u5f88\u5173\u952e\u4e86\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u8c28\u614e\u9009\u62e9\u8981\u9884\u4f30\u54ea\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7cfb\u5217{1,\u2026, n}\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4e8b\u524d\u8fdb\u884c\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\u4e14\u9009\u62e9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u9009\u62e9\u90a3\u4e9b\u67d0\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u67d0\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u4e3a\u4e86\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u641c\u7d22\u56e2\u961f\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u591a\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u641c\u7d22\u9875\u4e0a\u5c55\u793a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\u4f1a\u523a\u6fc0\u65c5\u5ba2\u7684\u8ba2\u623f\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u8003\u8651\u4f7f\u7528\u5176\u5b83\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n\u4f8b\u5982Airbnb\u5c31\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7528\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u524a\u5f31\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u51b3\u5176\u5b83\u7684\u8bf8\u5982\u6de1\u65fa\u5b63\u3001\u957f\u671fvs.\u77ed\u671f\u7b49\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u628a\u6240\u6709\u5165\u9009\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5408\u5e76\u8d77\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u7528\u8003\u8651\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u8bdd\u9700\u8981\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u4f5c\u4e1a\u5e76\u4e14\u4f1a\u62d6\u6162\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7ecf\u5e38\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u70b9\u513f\u601d\u8003<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u5728\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d4b\u91cf\u626e\u6f14\u8005\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u56e0\u4e3aA\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5bf9\u6210\u672c\u548c\u6548\u7387\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u96be\u514d\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u4efd\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u201cp-hacking\u201d\u4e4b\u7c7b\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e5f\u90fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e86\u3002\u4ece\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5230\u5168\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u5173\u8054\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6587\u732e\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8fc7\u591a\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6216\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u4e14\u6709\u6548\u5730\u6d4b\u91cf\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5e73\u53f0\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0cA\/B\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u7279\u6027\u90fd\u4f7f\u5f97\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u90fd\u9075\u5faa\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\u548c\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u73af\u5883\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u624d\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u5c06\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6218\u7ebf\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u3002<\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">\t\t<div class=\"wpulike wpulike-robeen \" ><div class=\"wp_ulike_general_class wp_ulike_is_unliked\"><label><input \ttype=\"checkbox\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ulike-id=\"58842\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ulike-nonce=\"f145615d7c\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ulike-type=\"likeThis\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ulike-status=\"3\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"wp_ulike_btn wp_ulike_put_image\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \/><svg class=\"heart-svg\" viewBox=\"467 392 58 57\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><g class=\"Group\" fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(467 392)\"><path d=\"M29.144 20.773c-.063-.13-4.227-8.67-11.44-2.59C7.63 28.795 28.94 43.256 29.143 43.394c.204-.138 21.513-14.6 11.44-25.213-7.214-6.08-11.377 2.46-11.44 2.59z\" class=\"heart\" fill=\"#AAB8C2\" \/><circle class=\"main-circ\" fill=\"#E2264D\" opacity=\"0\" cx=\"29.5\" cy=\"29.5\" r=\"1.5\" \/><g class=\"grp7\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(7 6)\"><circle class=\"oval1\" fill=\"#9CD8C3\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"6\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval2\" fill=\"#8CE8C3\" cx=\"5\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp6\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(0 28)\"><circle class=\"oval1\" fill=\"#CC8EF5\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"7\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval2\" fill=\"#91D2FA\" cx=\"3\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp3\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(52 28)\"><circle class=\"oval2\" fill=\"#9CD8C3\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"7\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval1\" fill=\"#8CE8C3\" cx=\"4\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp2\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(44 6)\" fill=\"#CC8EF5\"><circle class=\"oval2\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 10 0)\" cx=\"5\" cy=\"6\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval1\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 4 0)\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp5\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(14 50)\" fill=\"#91D2FA\"><circle class=\"oval1\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 12 0)\" cx=\"6\" cy=\"5\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval2\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 4 0)\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp4\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(35 50)\" fill=\"#F48EA7\"><circle class=\"oval1\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 12 0)\" cx=\"6\" cy=\"5\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval2\" transform=\"matrix(-1 0 0 1 4 0)\" cx=\"2\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><g class=\"grp1\" opacity=\"0\" transform=\"translate(24)\" fill=\"#9FC7FA\"><circle class=\"oval1\" cx=\"2.5\" cy=\"3\" r=\"2\" \/><circle class=\"oval2\" cx=\"7.5\" cy=\"2\" r=\"2\" \/><\/g><\/g><\/svg><span class=\"count-box\">11+<\/span>\t\t\t\t\t<\/label><\/div><\/div>\n\t<\/h1>\n<hr \/>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">\u66f4\u591a\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a<\/span><\/h4>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #666666;\"><a style=\"color: #666666;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?p=58828\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8bfa\u66fc\u8bf4\uff1a\u8bf7\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u8ba9\u201c\u4e34\u65f6\u5de5\u201d\u80cc\u9505\uff0c\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u624d\u662f\u7f6a\u9b41\u7978\u9996<\/a><\/span><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a style=\"color: #666666;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?p=58813\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u7528\u6237\u504f\u89c1<\/a><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a style=\"color: #666666;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?p=58786\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facebook\u8bbe\u8ba1\u603b\u76d1\u6559\u4f60\u91ca\u653e\u201c\u58f0\u97f3\u9b54\u529b\u201d<\/a><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #666666;\"><a style=\"color: #666666;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?p=58766\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u804a\u5929\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4ea4\u4e92\u65b9\u5f0f<\/a><\/span><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #666666;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #666666;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?tag=uxrenyi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5168\u90e8200+\u7bc7\u8bd1\u6587&gt;&gt;<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?page_id=7869\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7533\u8bf7\u52a0\u5165UXRen\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7ec4&gt;&gt;<\/a><\/span><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?page_id=7869\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-44581\" src=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/uxren-fanyizu-00.jpg\" alt=\"uxren-fanyizu-00\" width=\"120\" height=\"114\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u8bd1\u8005\uff1a<span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><b><strong>Ivan\u00a0<\/strong><\/b><\/span> \u5ba1\u6821\uff1a<strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">Dodo<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aMilan Shen<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6587\u6807\u9898\uff1a\u300aSelection Bias in Online Experimentation\u300b<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/medium.com\/airbnb-engineering\/selection-bias-in-online-experimentation-c3d67795cceb<\/p>\n<p>\u53d1\u5e03\u65e5\u671f\uff1aMay 29, 2017<\/p>\n<p>\u7248\u6743\u58f0\u660e\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672c\u6587\u7248\u6743\u5f52\uff1a<strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/?page_id=7869\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">UXRen\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7ec4<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u6240\u6709\uff1b<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n1\uff09\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u5fae\u4fe1\u5ba1\u7406\u4e25\u683c\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u8be5\u6587\u7ae0\u672a\u5728UXRen\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u4e0a\u9996\u53d1\uff0c\u8bf7\u4e0d\u8981\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff1b<br \/>\n2\uff09\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u8f6c\u8f7d\u65f6\uff0c\u8bf7\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u5e95\u90e8\u8d34\u4e0aUXRen\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u3002<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>\u7f51\u7ad9\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n1\uff09\u6587\u7ae0\u6807\u9898\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u7559\u201c<span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>UXRen\u8bd1<\/strong><\/span>\u201d\u5b57\u6837\uff1b<br \/>\n2\uff09\u8f6c\u8f7d\u6587\u4e2d\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u7559\uff1a\u201cUXRen\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7ec4\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4f5c\u8005\u201d\u3001\u201c\u8bd1\u8005\u201d\u53ca\u201c\u5ba1\u6821\u8005\u201d\u4fe1\u606f\uff1b<br \/>\n3\uff09\u8f6c\u8f7d\u6587\u672b\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u7559\u672c\u8bd1\u6587\u7f51\u9875\u94fe\u63a5\u5730\u5740\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5982\u672a\u9075\u7167\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c4\u5219\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff0c\u89c6\u4e3a\u4fb5\u6743\uff0cUXRen\u793e\u533a\u4fdd\u7559\u968f\u65f6\u8ffd\u8d23\u7684\u6743\u5229\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u61c2\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u518d\u8fdb\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9AB Test\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u6bd4\u8f83\u719f\u6089\u7684\u540c\u5b66\uff01<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1689,49],"tags":[1175,1784,3587,3586,3585,3588,2404,3584,3583],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58842"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58842"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58873,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58842\/revisions\/58873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/58864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uxren.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}